Lecce vs Juventus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Lecce and 2.00 for Juventus, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Juventus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Juventus win

58.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lecce home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Juventus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 20% / 21% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Lecce and 2.00 for Juventus, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lecce win20%

Draw21%

Juventus win58%

Double chance 1X

42%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–19.9%
1–29.9%
0–19.0%
0–29.0%
1–36.6%

Recent form

Lecce

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-4 (L)

Juventus

2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-09T18:45:00.000Z · Lecce 0-1 Juventus (Serie A)
2026-01-03T17:00:00.000Z · Lecce 1-1 Juventus (Serie A)
2025-04-12T18:45:00.000Z · Lecce 1-2 Juventus (Serie A)
2024-12-01T19:45:00.000Z · Lecce 1-1 Juventus (Serie A)
2024-01-21T19:45:00.000Z · Lecce 0-3 Juventus (Serie A)
2023-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · Lecce 0-1 Juventus (Serie A)
2023-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · Lecce 1-2 Juventus (Serie A)
2022-10-29T16:00:00.000Z · Lecce 0-1 Juventus (Serie A)
2020-06-26T19:45:00.000Z · Lecce 0-4 Juventus (Serie A)
2019-10-26T13:00:00.000Z · Lecce 1-1 Juventus (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	7	16
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	6	12
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Como	6	3	2	1	3	11
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Juventus win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.