Enea Poznań · Referee Juxhin Xhaja, Albania · Analysis updated 15:59 UTC
Lech Poznan vs Aarhus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.00 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 1.00 for Aarhus, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Lech Poznan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lech Poznan win
87.4% probability
Expected goals
4.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lech Poznan home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aarhus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lech Poznan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 87% / 8% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.00 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.00 for Aarhus, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
13%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–07.2%
- 3–17.2%
- 4–07.2%
- 4–17.2%
- 5–05.7%
Recent form
Lech Poznan
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Radomiak Radom · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Gornik Zabrze · 1-2 (L)
Aarhus
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Copenhagen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Gent · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonderjyske · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendsyssel FF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Horsens · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Real Betis | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 16 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Como | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 | Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 24 | Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 26 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 27 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 28 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -6 | 2 |
| 29 | Viking | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 30 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 31 | Inter | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Lask Linz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 33 | FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Lille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Galatasaray | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lech Poznan win, at 87.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.