Stadion Poznan · Analysis updated 20:59 UTC
Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 1.12 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Lech Poznan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lech Poznan win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lech Poznan home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pogon Szczecin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lech Poznan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 23% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.12 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Lech Poznan
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 2-2 (D)
Pogon Szczecin
- 2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Radomiak Radom · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GKS Katowice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Udinese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Piast Gliwice · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Jagiellonia | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Wieczysta Kraków | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lech Poznan win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.