Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.50 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Lech Poznan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lech Poznan win

72.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 0.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lech Poznan home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Radomiak Radom away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lech Poznan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 19% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.50 for Radomiak Radom, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Lech Poznan win72%

Draw19%

Radomiak Radom win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

1–016.8%
2–016.4%
3–010.7%
0–08.6%
1–18.4%

Recent form

Lech Poznan

2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 6-1 (W)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 2-2 (D)

Radomiak Radom

2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 7-2 (W)
2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Piast Gliwice · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Widzew Łódź · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-01T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ekstraklasa table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	11	8	2	1	10	26
2	Lech Poznan	10	8	1	1	18	25
3	Legia Warszawa	11	6	5	0	13	23
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	6	3	1	9	21
5	GKS Katowice	11	6	0	5	6	18
6	Wisla Krakow	11	5	3	3	3	18
7	Zaglebie Lubin	11	5	3	3	0	18
8	Piast Gliwice	11	5	2	4	2	17
9	Korona Kielce	11	4	3	4	-5	15
10	Wisla Plock	10	4	2	4	-5	14
11	Cracovia Krakow	11	3	3	5	-3	12
12	Motor Lublin	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Jagiellonia	10	4	0	6	-4	12
14	Widzew Łódź	11	1	7	3	-1	10
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	2	2	7	-5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	11	2	2	7	-15	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	1	3	7	-8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	2	0	9	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lech Poznan win, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.