Enea Poznań · Referee Damian Kos, Poland · Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.83 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Lech Poznan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lech Poznan win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lech Poznan home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lech Poznan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 20% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.83 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.8%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–08.2%
Recent form
Lech Poznan
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Radomiak Radom · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Gornik Zabrze · 1-2 (L)
Raków Częstochowa
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaglebie Lubin · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Motor Lublin · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · Lech Poznan 1-0 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2026-03-01T16:30:00.000Z · Lech Poznan 4-3 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-09-24T16:45:00.000Z · Lech Poznan 2-2 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-02-14T19:30:00.000Z · Lech Poznan 0-1 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-08-09T18:30:00.000Z · Lech Poznan 0-0 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-03-03T16:30:00.000Z · Lech Poznan 0-4 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-09-28T18:00:00.000Z · Lech Poznan 4-1 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-05-14T15:30:00.000Z · Lech Poznan 2-0 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-10-30T16:30:00.000Z · Lech Poznan 1-2 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-07-09T18:10:00.000Z · Lech Poznan 0-2 Raków Częstochowa (Super Cup)
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | GKS Katowice | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lech Poznan win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.