· Analysis updated 06:58 UTC
Lech Poznan W vs Górnik Łęczna W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Lech Poznan W and 3.58 for Górnik Łęczna W, a combined total of 4.85. That distribution gives Górnik Łęczna W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Górnik Łęczna W win
79.4% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 3.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lech Poznan W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Górnik Łęczna W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Górnik Łęczna W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 9% / 11% / 79% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Lech Poznan W and 3.58 for Górnik Łęczna W, a combined 4.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
21%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.6%
- 1–46.8%
- 1–26.4%
- 0–36.0%
- 0–45.3%
Recent form
Lech Poznan W
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogon Szczecin W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademia Piłkarska LG W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia W · 3-4 (L)
Górnik Łęczna W
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Legia W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sleza Wroclaw W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biala W · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · Lech Poznan W 0-3 Górnik Łęczna W (Ekstraliga Women)
- 2026-04-25T10:00:00.000Z · Lech Poznan W 1-3 Górnik Łęczna W (Ekstraliga Women)
- 2025-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · Lech Poznan W 0-4 Górnik Łęczna W (Ekstraliga Women)
Ekstraliga Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GKS Katowice W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 19 |
| 2 | Górnik Łęczna W | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Czarni Sosnowiec W | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 14 |
| 5 | Akademia Piłkarska LG W | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Legia W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 7 | UJ Krakow W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 8 | Sleza Wroclaw W | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala W | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Lech Poznan W | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 11 | UKS Łódź W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 12 | Slask Wroclaw W | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Górnik Łęczna W win, at 79.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.