Polsat Plus Arena · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.32 for Arka Gdynia, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Lechia Gdansk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lechia Gdansk win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lechia Gdansk home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arka Gdynia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lechia Gdansk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.84 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.32 for Arka Gdynia, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Lechia Gdansk
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Stal Mielec · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Miedz Legnica · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kluczbork · 2-1 (W)
Arka Gdynia
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Siedlce · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Warta Poznań · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T17:05:00.000Z · A vs Resovia Rzeszów · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Warta Poznań | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | ŁKS Łódź | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Ruch Chorzów | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Miedz Legnica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Stal Rzeszów | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 14 |
| 9 | Lechia Gdansk | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Pogoń Siedlce | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Chrobry Głogów | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Polonia Bytom | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Stal Mielec | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 14 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Unia Skierniewice | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Odra Opole | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lechia Gdansk win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.