Polsat Plus Arena · Referee L. Szczech · Analysis updated 22:30 UTC
Lechia Gdansk vs Miedz Legnica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.43 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.97 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Miedz Legnica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Miedz Legnica win
74.6% probability
Expected goals
0.43 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lechia Gdansk home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Miedz Legnica away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.9%
- 0–217.7%
- 0–311.6%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–17.6%
Recent form
Lechia Gdansk
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Stal Mielec · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Miedz Legnica · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kluczbork · 2-1 (W)
Miedz Legnica
- 2026-10-11T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Odra Opole · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Rzeszów · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chrobry Głogów · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2024-05-26T13:00:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 1-4 Miedz Legnica (I Liga)
- 2023-12-03T11:40:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 2-0 Miedz Legnica (I Liga)
- 2023-03-10T17:00:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 4-0 Miedz Legnica (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Miedz Legnica (Ekstraklasa)
- 2018-12-17T17:00:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 0-0 Miedz Legnica (Ekstraklasa)
- 2018-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 2-0 Miedz Legnica (Ekstraklasa)
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Ruch Chorzów | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 3 | Polonia Warszawa | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Nieciecza | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Lechia Gdansk | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 6 | Miedz Legnica | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | ŁKS Łódź | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Polonia Bytom | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszów | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 17 |
| 11 | Pogoń Siedlce | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Podbeskidzie | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Chrobry Głogów | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Stal Mielec | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Odra Opole | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 18 | Unia Skierniewice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Miedz Legnica win, at 74.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.