Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.16 for Pogoń Siedlce, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Lechia Gdansk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lechia Gdansk win

45.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.16

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lechia Gdansk home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pogoń Siedlce away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lechia Gdansk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.16 for Pogoń Siedlce, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lechia Gdansk win45%

Draw26%

Pogoń Siedlce win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.5%
2–19.1%
0–18.1%
2–07.9%

Recent form

Lechia Gdansk

2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Stal Mielec · 7-1 (W)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Miedz Legnica · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kluczbork · 2-1 (W)

Pogoń Siedlce

2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Bytom · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jastrzębie · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	6	3	1	11	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	10	5	2	3	4	17
3	Nieciecza	10	5	2	3	2	17
4	Lechia Gdansk	10	5	1	4	3	16
5	Warta Poznań	10	5	0	5	3	15
6	ŁKS Łódź	10	4	3	3	2	15
7	Ruch Chorzów	10	4	3	3	0	15
8	Miedz Legnica	10	4	2	4	4	14
9	Stal Rzeszów	10	4	2	4	-6	14
10	Pogoń Siedlce	9	3	3	3	1	12
11	Odra Opole	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Chrobry Głogów	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Polonia Bytom	10	2	6	2	-2	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	3	3	4	-8	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	1	8	1	-1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	3	2	5	-1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	10	3	2	5	-5	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	9	2	0	7	-5	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lechia Gdansk win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.