Polsat Plus Arena · Referee M. Jenda · Analysis updated 13:59 UTC
Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.09 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Lechia Gdansk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lechia Gdansk win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lechia Gdansk home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stal Mielec away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–18.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.38 (model 48.3% vs market 39.1%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.38 | 39.1% | 48.3% | 2.07 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 52.3% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.4% | 72.6% | 1.38 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.6% | 25.7% | 3.89 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.91 | 46.9% | 46.9% | 2.13 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.25 | 27.5% | 27.4% | 3.65 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 74.3% | 1.35 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 60.9% | 51.7% | 1.93 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lechia Gdansk
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Stal Mielec · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Miedz Legnica · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kluczbork · 2-1 (W)
Stal Mielec
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 7-1 Stal Mielec (I Liga)
- 2025-04-14T17:00:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Stal Mielec (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-10-05T10:15:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Stal Mielec (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-05-14T10:30:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 0-0 Stal Mielec (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-10-30T14:00:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Stal Mielec (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-05-08T10:30:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Stal Mielec (Ekstraklasa)
- 2021-11-20T16:30:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 3-3 Stal Mielec (Ekstraklasa)
- 2021-02-27T14:00:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Stal Mielec (Ekstraklasa)
- 2020-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · Lechia Gdansk 4-2 Stal Mielec (Ekstraklasa)
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Ruch Chorzów | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Polonia Warszawa | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | Lechia Gdansk | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | ŁKS Łódź | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Stal Rzeszów | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 10 | Chrobry Głogów | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Pogoń Siedlce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Polonia Bytom | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Odra Opole | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 15 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lechia Gdansk win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.