Polsat Plus Arena · Analysis updated 03:32 UTC
Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.20 for Unia Skierniewice, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Lechia Gdansk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lechia Gdansk win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lechia Gdansk home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Unia Skierniewice away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lechia Gdansk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.20 for Unia Skierniewice, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–07.3%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Lechia Gdansk
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Stal Mielec · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Miedz Legnica · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kluczbork · 2-1 (W)
Unia Skierniewice
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Poznań · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Plock · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Ruch Chorzów | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 3 | Polonia Warszawa | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Nieciecza | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Lechia Gdansk | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 6 | Miedz Legnica | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | ŁKS Łódź | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Polonia Bytom | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszów | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 17 |
| 11 | Pogoń Siedlce | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Podbeskidzie | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Chrobry Głogów | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Stal Mielec | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Odra Opole | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 18 | Unia Skierniewice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lechia Gdansk win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.