MOSiR · Analysis updated 16:30 UTC
Lechia Zielona Góra vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lechia Zielona Góra and 1.44 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Rekord Bielsko-Biała the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lechia Zielona Góra home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rekord Bielsko-Biała away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rekord Bielsko-Biała to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 25% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Lechia Zielona Góra and 1.44 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Lechia Zielona Góra
- 2026-10-24T10:45:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Znicz Pruszków · 1-3 (L)
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
- 2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Świt Skolwin · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
II Liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 32 |
| 2 | Tychy 71 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 22 |
| 5 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 10 | Hutnik Kraków | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | Avia Świdnik | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 17 |
| 13 | Legia Warszawa II | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 15 | Sokół Kleczew | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 16 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.