Lechia Zielona Góra vs Znicz Pruszków Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lechia Zielona Góra and 2.18 for Znicz Pruszków, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Znicz Pruszków the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Znicz Pruszków win

50.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 2.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lechia Zielona Góra home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Znicz Pruszków to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 29% / 21% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Lechia Zielona Góra and 2.18 for Znicz Pruszków, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Lechia Zielona Góra win29%

Draw21%

Znicz Pruszków win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–28.6%
1–17.9%
2–27.0%
2–16.4%
1–36.2%

Recent form

Lechia Zielona Góra

2026-10-24T10:45:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna · 0-6 (L)
2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa II · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Znicz Pruszków · 1-3 (L)

Znicz Pruszków

2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tychy 71 · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · Lechia Zielona Góra 1-3 Znicz Pruszków (II Liga - East)

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	12	9	2	1	13	29
2	Tychy 71	12	7	5	0	12	26
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
6	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
7	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	5	4	3	2	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	12	5	2	5	-2	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Znicz Pruszków win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.