Thorp Arch · Referee H. Blair · Analysis updated 23:08 UTC
Leeds United U21 vs West Bromwich Albion U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Leeds United U21 and 1.43 for West Bromwich Albion U21, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives West Bromwich Albion U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leeds United U21 home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
West Bromwich Albion U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.70 (model 43.3% vs market 34.1%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.70 | 34.1% | 43.3% | 2.31 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 61.9% | 64.0% | 1.56 | +2.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.30 | 38.2% | 38.7% | 2.58 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.1% | 25.3% | 3.95 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.40 | 36.6% | 36.0% | 2.78 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 61.9% | 61.3% | 1.63 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.1% | 74.7% | 1.34 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 65.9% | 56.7% | 1.76 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Leeds United U21
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barnsley · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Middlesbrough U21 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Solihull Moors · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton Athletic U21 · 0-1 (L)
West Bromwich Albion U21
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Derby County U21 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bromley U21 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds United U21 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Woking · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley U21 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · Leeds United U21 4-3 West Bromwich Albion U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2025-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · Leeds United U21 2-2 West Bromwich Albion U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2024-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · Leeds United U21 2-1 West Bromwich Albion U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2024-04-29T18:00:00.000Z · Leeds United U21 2-4 West Bromwich Albion U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2023-04-28T13:00:00.000Z · Leeds United U21 1-2 West Bromwich Albion U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2023-01-16T19:00:00.000Z · Leeds United U21 1-2 West Bromwich Albion U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
Premier League 2 Division One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 4 | Liverpool U21 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sunderland U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Norwich City U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Fulham U21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Reading U21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Manchester United U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 12 | Everton U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Brighton U21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | West Ham United U21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Aston Villa U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Derby County U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 18 | Leeds United U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 | Manchester City U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 20 | Ipswich Town U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 21 | Brentford U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 22 | Stoke City U21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 | Leicester City U21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 24 | Arsenal U21 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 25 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 26 | Burnley U21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 | Wolves U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 28 | Middlesbrough U21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 29 | Birmingham City U21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -11 | 2 |
| 30 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.