Elland Road · Referee Adam Herczeg, England · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Leeds vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Leeds and 0.86 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Leeds the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leeds win
54.6% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leeds home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Crystal Palace away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 54.1% vs market 44.9%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 44.9% | 54.1% | 1.85 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.6% | 79.7% | 1.25 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.73 | 54.4% | 54.6% | 1.83 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 25.1% | 25.1% | 3.98 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 20.5% | 20.3% | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.4% | 74.9% | 1.34 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.05 | 46.0% | 45.4% | 2.20 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.1% | 45.9% | 2.18 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Leeds
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 1-1 (D)
Crystal Palace
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznan · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Leeds 0-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2026-03-15T14:00:00.000Z · Leeds 0-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2025-12-20T20:00:00.000Z · Leeds 4-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2023-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · Leeds 1-5 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2022-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · Leeds 1-2 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2022-07-22T10:05:00.000Z · Leeds 1-1 Crystal Palace (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-04-25T19:00:00.000Z · Leeds 0-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2021-11-30T20:15:00.000Z · Leeds 1-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2021-02-08T20:00:00.000Z · Leeds 2-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2020-11-07T15:00:00.000Z · Leeds 1-4 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leeds win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.