· Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Leeds vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Leeds and 4.50 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 6.25. That distribution gives FC Augsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Augsburg win
81.2% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 4.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leeds home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Augsburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Augsburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 9% / 10% / 81% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Leeds and 4.50 for FC Augsburg, a combined 6.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
19%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–45.8%
- 1–55.2%
- 1–35.1%
- 2–45.1%
- 2–54.5%
Recent form
Leeds
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 1-1 (D)
FC Augsburg
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Augsburg win, at 81.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.