Elland Road · Referee Michael Salisbury, England · Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Leeds vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Leeds and 1.06 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Leeds the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leeds home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Newcastle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–110.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 53.6% vs market 40.6%, edge +13.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.6% | 53.6% | 1.87 | +13.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 58.7% | 59.6% | 1.68 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 28.0% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 40.2% | 40.3% | 2.48 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 31.9% | 31.4% | 3.18 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.2% | 71.7% | 1.39 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 69.1% | 68.5% | 1.46 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 59.4% | 46.4% | 2.16 | -13.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Leeds
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 1-1 (D)
Newcastle
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · Leeds 4-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
- 2026-01-07T20:15:00.000Z · Leeds 3-4 Newcastle (Premier League)
- 2025-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · Leeds 0-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
- 2023-05-13T11:30:00.000Z · Leeds 2-2 Newcastle (Premier League)
- 2022-12-31T15:00:00.000Z · Leeds 0-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
- 2022-01-22T15:00:00.000Z · Leeds 0-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
- 2021-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · Leeds 1-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
- 2021-01-26T18:00:00.000Z · Leeds 2-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
- 2020-12-16T18:00:00.000Z · Leeds 5-2 Newcastle (Premier League)
- 2017-04-14T18:45:00.000Z · Leeds 1-1 Newcastle (Championship)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.