· Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
Leeds vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Leeds and 1.72 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives RB Leipzig the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leeds home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
RB Leipzig away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RB Leipzig to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 38% / 23% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Leeds and 1.72 for RB Leipzig, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.8%
Recent form
Leeds
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 1-1 (D)
RB Leipzig
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · Leeds 2-0 RB Leipzig (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.