Leeds vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Leeds and 0.52 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.07. That distribution gives Leeds the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Leeds win

62.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 0.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Leeds home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tottenham away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Leeds win63%

Draw25%

Tottenham win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

1–019.5%
2–015.1%
0–012.6%
1–110.2%
2–17.9%

Recent form

Leeds

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 3-6 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 1-1 (D)

Tottenham

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-11T19:00:00.000Z · Leeds 1-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
2025-10-04T11:30:00.000Z · Leeds 1-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
2023-05-28T15:30:00.000Z · Leeds 1-4 Tottenham (Premier League)
2022-11-12T15:00:00.000Z · Leeds 3-4 Tottenham (Premier League)
2022-02-26T12:30:00.000Z · Leeds 0-4 Tottenham (Premier League)
2021-11-21T16:30:00.000Z · Leeds 1-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
2021-05-08T11:30:00.000Z · Leeds 3-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
2021-01-02T12:30:00.000Z · Leeds 0-3 Tottenham (Premier League)
2013-01-27T14:00:00.000Z · Leeds 2-1 Tottenham (FA Cup)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Leeds win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.