Leevon / PPK vs Smiltene Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.16 expected goals for Leevon / PPK and 0.99 for Smiltene, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Leevon / PPK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Leevon / PPK win

79.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.16 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Leevon / PPK home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Smiltene away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leevon / PPK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 12% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.16 goals for Leevon / PPK and 0.99 for Smiltene, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Leevon / PPK win80%

Draw12%

Smiltene win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

21%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

3–08.3%
3–18.2%
2–07.9%
2–17.8%
4–06.5%

Recent form

Leevon / PPK

2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Rīgas FS II · 6-3 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga FC II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Super Nova 2 · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Smiltene · 4-2 (W)

Smiltene

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga FC II · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tukums II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova 2 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga Mariners · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs JDFS Alberts · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Metta / LU	23	19	3	1	78	60
2	Valmiera / BSS	23	16	5	2	37	53
3	Leevon / PPK	23	16	5	2	22	53
4	Riga Mariners	23	15	5	3	24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	12	5	6	13	41
6	Mārupe	23	10	3	10	3	33
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	-3	30
8	Skanste	23	8	2	13	-2	26
9	Super Nova 2	23	6	8	9	-6	26
10	Smiltene	23	5	5	13	-27	20
11	Tukums II	23	5	4	14	-34	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	5	3	15	-28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	3	7	13	-24	16
14	Rēzekne FA	23	1	3	19	-53	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Leevon / PPK win, at 79.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.