· Analysis updated 04:57 UTC
Lefkimmi vs Pallixouriakos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Lefkimmi and 1.96 for Pallixouriakos, a combined total of 3.26. That distribution gives Pallixouriakos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Pallixouriakos win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pallixouriakos away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pallixouriakos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 26% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Lefkimmi and 1.96 for Pallixouriakos, a combined 3.26 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–17.5%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–16.4%
Recent form
Lefkimmi
Pallixouriakos
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Plataria · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-09-08T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Anagennisi Artas · 0-3 (L)
- 2022-09-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PAO Vardas · 1-5 (L)
- 2021-06-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethnikos Skoulikadou · 0-3 (L)
- 2021-06-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aias Gastounis · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panegialios | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| 2 | Preveza | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 3 | Panachaiki FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 |
| 4 | Atromitos Patras | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Pallixouriakos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Plataria | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Aris Filiates | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Tilikratis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Agios Matthaios | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 10 | Panagriniakos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 4 |
| 11 | Lefkimmi | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Levante | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pallixouriakos win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.