· Analysis updated 05:43 UTC
Lefkimmi vs Panegialios Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Lefkimmi and 2.20 for Panegialios, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Panegialios the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Panegialios win
73.5% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Panegialios away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Panegialios to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 9% / 17% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Lefkimmi and 2.20 for Panegialios, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.4%
- 0–113.0%
- 0–310.5%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
Lefkimmi
Panegialios
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lefkimmi · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Agios Matthaios · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tilikratis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris Filiates · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panachaiki FC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panegialios | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| 2 | Preveza | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 3 | Panachaiki FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 |
| 4 | Atromitos Patras | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Pallixouriakos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Plataria | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Aris Filiates | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Tilikratis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Agios Matthaios | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 10 | Panagriniakos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 4 |
| 11 | Lefkimmi | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Levante | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Panegialios win, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.