Stadio Lefkímmis · Analysis updated 03:26 UTC
Lefkimmi vs Preveza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Lefkimmi and 0.68 for Preveza, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Lefkimmi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lefkimmi win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Preveza away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lefkimmi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 25% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Lefkimmi and 0.68 for Preveza, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 39%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Lefkimmi
Preveza
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panagriniakos · 2-0 (W)
- 2021-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amvrakikos Loutrou · 0-0 (D)
- 2021-06-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Acheron Kanalaki · 0-1 (L)
- 2021-05-30T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Kalirachis · 2-2 (D)
- 2021-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Panagriniakos · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lefkimmi win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.