Legia Training Center · Analysis updated 07:09 UTC
Legia Warszawa II vs Stal Stalowa Wola Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Legia Warszawa II and 1.71 for Stal Stalowa Wola, a combined total of 4.17. That distribution gives Legia Warszawa II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Legia Warszawa II win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 1.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Legia Warszawa II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stal Stalowa Wola away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Legia Warszawa II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 19% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Legia Warszawa II and 1.71 for Stal Stalowa Wola, a combined 4.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–16.5%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Legia Warszawa II
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tychy 71 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-4 (L)
Stal Stalowa Wola
- 2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Znicz Pruszków · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Resovia Rzeszów · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
II Liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 29 |
| 2 | Tychy 71 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 | Hutnik Kraków | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Avia Świdnik | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 13 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 14 | Legia Warszawa II | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Sokół Kleczew | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -13 | 9 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Legia Warszawa II win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.