Polish Army Stadium · Referee Szymon Marciniak · Analysis updated 14:31 UTC
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.67 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Legia Warszawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Legia Warszawa home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Legia Warszawa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 23% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.67 for Lech Poznan, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.8%
Recent form
Legia Warszawa
- 2026-10-17T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Krakow · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 3-1 (W)
Lech Poznan
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T15:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 0-4 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-10-26T19:15:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 0-0 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-07-13T16:00:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 2-1 Lech Poznan (Super Cup)
- 2025-05-11T15:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 0-1 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-11-10T16:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 2-5 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-05-12T15:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 2-1 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-11-12T16:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 0-0 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-04-16T15:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 2-2 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 0-0 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-04-09T15:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 1-1 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Jagiellonia | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.