Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie · Referee Marcin Szczerbowicz, Poland · Analysis updated 14:02 UTC
Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.88 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Legia Warszawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Legia Warszawa win
71.9% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Legia Warszawa home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slask Wroclaw away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
Legia Warszawa
- 2026-10-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Krakow · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Widzew Łódź · 1-1 (D)
Slask Wroclaw
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Krakow · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogon Szczecin · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 1-1 Slask Wroclaw (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-03-02T13:45:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 3-1 Slask Wroclaw (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-08-25T18:15:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 1-1 Slask Wroclaw (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-04-21T15:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 0-0 Slask Wroclaw (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-10-21T15:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 0-4 Slask Wroclaw (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-05-27T15:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 3-1 Slask Wroclaw (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-11-13T16:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 0-0 Slask Wroclaw (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-03-07T18:00:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 1-0 Slask Wroclaw (Ekstraklasa)
- 2021-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 0-1 Slask Wroclaw (Ekstraklasa)
- 2021-03-07T16:30:00.000Z · Legia Warszawa 1-0 Slask Wroclaw (Ekstraklasa)
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | GKS Katowice | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Legia Warszawa win, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.