· Analysis updated 10:12 UTC
Legião vs GREVAL Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Legião and 1.53 for GREVAL, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives GREVAL the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GREVAL win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GREVAL away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GREVAL to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 22% / 26% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Legião and 1.53 for GREVAL, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 46%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–210.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Legião
GREVAL
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Legião · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luziânia · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Taguatinga EC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Candango · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Planaltina DF · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Brasiliense B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taguatinga EC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Planaltina DF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Canaa EC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | GREVAL | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Legião | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Luziânia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 7 | Candango | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GREVAL win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.