· Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Legion vs Narva U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Legion and 2.65 for Narva U21, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Narva U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Narva U21 win
83.0% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 2.65
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Legion home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Narva U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
17%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–215.0%
- 0–313.3%
- 0–111.4%
- 0–48.8%
- 1–27.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 19.00 | 4.8% | 4.9% | 20.41 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.11 | 82.9% | 83.0% | 1.20 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 7.50 | 12.3% | 12.2% | 8.20 | -0.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Legion
- 2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Levadia U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 0-12 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs JK Tabasalu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Tartu Kalev · 1-2 (L)
Narva U21
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Legion · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna Kalev II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Luunja · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Levadia U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Kalev · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · Legion 1-3 Narva U21 (Esiliiga B)
- 2026-05-02T09:30:00.000Z · Legion 0-5 Narva U21 (Esiliiga B)
- 2025-09-28T09:30:00.000Z · Legion 0-4 Narva U21 (Esiliiga B)
- 2025-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · Legion 1-5 Narva U21 (Esiliiga B)
- 2025-06-29T12:00:00.000Z · Legion 0-4 Narva U21 (Esiliiga B)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Legion 0-2 Narva U21 (Esiliiga B)
- 2024-10-28T16:00:00.000Z · Legion 2-4 Narva U21 (Esiliiga B)
- 2024-09-22T09:30:00.000Z · Legion 1-1 Narva U21 (Esiliiga B)
- 2024-06-03T00:00:00.000Z · Legion 1-1 Narva U21 (Esiliiga B)
- 2024-04-18T00:00:00.000Z · Legion 3-1 Narva U21 (Esiliiga B)
Esiliiga B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Narva U21 | 33 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 38 | 70 |
| 2 | Levadia U19 | 33 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 65 |
| 3 | Phoenix | 34 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 57 |
| 4 | Luunja | 33 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 56 |
| 5 | Tulevik | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 53 |
| 6 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 33 | 50 |
| 7 | Tartu Kalev | 34 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 50 |
| 8 | JK Tabasalu | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | -38 | 37 |
| 9 | Tallinna Kalev II | 33 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -17 | 30 |
| 10 | Legion | 34 | 3 | 4 | 27 | -103 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Narva U21 win, at 83.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.