Legion vs Tallinna Kalev II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Legion and 2.68 for Tallinna Kalev II, a combined total of 4.53. That distribution gives Tallinna Kalev II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Tallinna Kalev II win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 2.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Legion home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tallinna Kalev II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tallinna Kalev II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 26% / 18% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Legion and 2.68 for Tallinna Kalev II, a combined 4.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Legion win26%

Draw18%

Tallinna Kalev II win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score78%

Correct score

1–27.2%
2–26.6%
1–36.4%
2–35.9%
1–15.4%

Recent form

Legion

2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Levadia U19 · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 0-12 (L)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs JK Tabasalu · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Tartu Kalev · 1-2 (L)

Tallinna Kalev II

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Tulevik · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Johvi Phoenix · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JK Tabasalu · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Esiliiga B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Narva U21	34	23	4	7	39	73
2	Levadia U19	33	21	2	10	30	65
3	Phoenix	34	18	3	13	0	57
4	Luunja	33	17	5	11	25	56
5	Tulevik	34	16	5	13	18	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	15	5	13	33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	34	16	2	16	13	50
8	JK Tabasalu	34	11	4	19	-38	37
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	8	6	19	-17	30
10	Legion	34	3	4	27	-103	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tallinna Kalev II win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.