King Power Stadium · Referee A. Fearn · Analysis updated 02:16 UTC
Leicester City FC W vs Durham W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Leicester City FC W and 1.42 for Durham W, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Leicester City FC W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leicester City FC W win
62.4% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leicester City FC W home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Durham W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leicester City FC W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 18% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for Leicester City FC W and 1.42 for Durham W, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–26.2%
- 2–06.1%
Recent form
Leicester City FC W
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle United W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs London City Lionesses W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town W · 0-1 (L)
Durham W
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford W · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham City W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United W · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Women's Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | Ipswich Town W | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Sunderland W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Bristol City W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Nottingham Forest W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Southampton W | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Wolverhampton W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Leicester City FC W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield United W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Watford W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Burnley W | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 12 | Durham W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leicester City FC W win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.