Meadow Lane · Analysis updated 21:13 UTC
Leicester City FC W vs London City Lionesses W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Leicester City FC W and 1.57 for London City Lionesses W, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives London City Lionesses W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
London City Lionesses W win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leicester City FC W home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
London City Lionesses W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Leicester City FC W
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle United W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs London City Lionesses W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town W · 0-1 (L)
London City Lionesses W
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich Town W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-23T18:30:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 0-2 London City Lionesses W (WSL Cup)
- 2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 1-5 London City Lionesses W (FA WSL)
- 2025-12-14T11:55:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 1-0 London City Lionesses W (FA WSL)
- 2025-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 1-0 London City Lionesses W (WSL Cup)
- 2021-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 2-0 London City Lionesses W (Women's Championship)
- 2020-11-01T14:00:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 1-4 London City Lionesses W (Women's Championship)
WSL Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester United W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 |
| 2 | Aston Villa W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Crystal Palace W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Liverpool W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | London City Lionesses W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | West Ham W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Brighton W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Everton W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Burnley W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunderland W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Wolverhampton W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Bristol City W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Ipswich Town W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Watford W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Leicester City FC W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Southampton W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | Sheffield United W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -9 | 1 |
| 20 | Birmingham City W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 21 | Newcastle United W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 22 | Durham W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 23 | Charlton Athletic W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is London City Lionesses W win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.