King Power Stadium · Referee S. Fullicks · Analysis updated 19:10 UTC
Leicester City FC W vs Manchester United W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Leicester City FC W and 2.18 for Manchester United W, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Manchester United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Manchester United W win
65.3% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leicester City FC W home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Manchester United W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–37.5%
Recent form
Leicester City FC W
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle United W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs London City Lionesses W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town W · 0-1 (L)
Manchester United W
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool W · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton Athletic W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Durham W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-07T12:00:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 0-2 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2025-09-07T11:00:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 0-4 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2025-03-02T12:30:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 0-2 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2024-11-17T15:00:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 0-2 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2024-04-28T14:00:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 0-1 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2023-12-14T19:00:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 1-3 Manchester United W (WSL Cup)
- 2023-10-15T11:00:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 1-1 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2023-03-05T12:30:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 1-5 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2022-10-23T14:00:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 0-1 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
- 2022-03-05T12:00:00.000Z · Leicester City FC W 0-4 Manchester United W (FA WSL)
FA WSL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Chelsea W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 16 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Manchester United W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | Everton W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Liverpool W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Arsenal W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | West Ham W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Aston Villa W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -7 | 6 |
| 12 | Brighton W | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Birmingham City W | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Manchester United W win, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.