LCFC Training Ground · Analysis updated 20:56 UTC
Leicester City U21 vs Plymouth U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.07 expected goals for Leicester City U21 and 1.26 for Plymouth U21, a combined total of 4.33. That distribution gives Leicester City U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leicester City U21 win
73.3% probability
Expected goals
3.07 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leicester City U21 home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leicester City U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 14% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.07 goals for Leicester City U21 and 1.26 for Plymouth U21, a combined 4.33 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 68%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.0%
- 2–17.8%
- 3–06.3%
- 2–06.2%
- 4–16.1%
Recent form
Leicester City U21
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham United U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton U21 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Bournemouth U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United U21 · 1-4 (L)
Plymouth U21
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff City U21 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester City U21 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leicester City U21 win, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.