LCFC Training Ground · Analysis updated 03:48 UTC
Leicester City U21 vs Real Sociedad II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Leicester City U21 and 2.15 for Real Sociedad II, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Real Sociedad II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Sociedad II win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leicester City U21 home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Real Sociedad II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Sociedad II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 21% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Leicester City U21 and 2.15 for Real Sociedad II, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–35.9%
Recent form
Leicester City U21
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham United U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton U21 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Bournemouth U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United U21 · 1-4 (L)
Real Sociedad II
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Almeria · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celta de Vigo II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Granada CF · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester City U21 · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League International Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderlecht U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Monaco U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Brondby U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 6 | Borussia Dortmund II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Nordsjælland U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Brighton U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Milan II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Aston Villa U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | West Ham United U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Genk U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Jong PSV U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Southampton U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Sunderland U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Everton U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 21 | Juventus U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 22 | Ipswich Town U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Paris Saint-Germain U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Valencia U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Fulham U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Leicester City U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 29 | Stoke City U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Sociedad II win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.