Leicester vs Plymouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Leicester and 1.33 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Plymouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

71.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Leicester home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Plymouth away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Plymouth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 28% / 28% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Leicester and 1.33 for Plymouth, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Leicester win28%

Draw28%

Plymouth win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

0–113.0%
1–113.0%
0–09.8%
1–09.8%
0–28.6%

Recent form

Leicester

2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bromley · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Doncaster · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stevenage · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 6-1 (W)

Plymouth

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs AFC Wimbledon · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leyton Orient · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burton Albion · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace U21 · 5-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · Leicester 2-0 Plymouth (League One)
2024-04-12T19:00:00.000Z · Leicester 0-1 Plymouth (Championship)
2023-12-09T15:00:00.000Z · Leicester 4-0 Plymouth (Championship)

League One table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Huddersfield	12	7	4	1	13	25
2	Stockport County	12	7	2	3	12	23
3	Bradford	12	6	4	2	5	22
4	Plymouth	13	7	1	5	2	22
5	Reading	12	6	3	3	12	21
6	Cambridge United	12	5	5	2	3	20
7	Oxford United	10	5	4	1	8	19
8	Sheffield Wednesday	11	5	3	3	8	18
9	Mansfield Town	11	5	3	3	4	18
10	Luton	11	5	2	4	2	17
11	Burton Albion	13	4	5	4	-1	17
12	Stevenage	11	4	3	4	4	15
13	Leicester	11	4	3	4	0	15
14	Wycombe	12	3	6	3	-4	15
15	Leyton Orient	12	4	2	6	2	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	12	3	4	5	-11	13
17	Doncaster	11	3	3	5	-1	12
18	Milton Keynes Dons	11	2	6	3	-6	12
19	Notts County	11	2	5	4	-3	11
20	Blackpool	11	3	2	6	-4	11
21	Peterborough	12	2	4	6	-10	10
22	Bromley	11	2	3	6	-16	9
23	Barnsley	11	2	2	7	-10	8
24	Wigan	11	2	1	8	-9	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.