King Power Stadium · Analysis updated 12:41 UTC
Leicester vs Stevenage Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Leicester and 1.50 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Stevenage the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leicester home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stevenage away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stevenage to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 25% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Leicester and 1.50 for Stevenage, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–07.8%
Recent form
Leicester
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bromley · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Doncaster · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stevenage · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 6-1 (W)
Stevenage
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Walsall · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leyton Orient · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Luton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barnsley · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Bradford | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Plymouth | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Reading | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Luton | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
| 13 | Leicester | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Wycombe | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Leyton Orient | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Doncaster | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -6 | 12 |
| 19 | Notts County | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 21 | Peterborough | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 22 | Bromley | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -16 | 9 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 24 | Wigan | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.