King Power Stadium · Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Leicester vs Walsall Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Leicester and 1.33 for Walsall, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Leicester the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Leicester win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leicester home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Walsall away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leicester to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Leicester and 1.33 for Walsall, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Leicester
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Barnsley · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth · 2-0 (W)
Walsall
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tranmere · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Stevenage · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Port Vale · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leicester win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.