· Analysis updated 02:15 UTC
Leicesterfield vs Hope FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for Leicesterfield and 1.01 for Hope FC, a combined total of 1.87. That distribution gives Hope FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.1% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leicesterfield home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hope FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 30% / 32% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.86 goals for Leicesterfield and 1.01 for Hope FC, a combined 1.87 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 29% and both teams to score at 37%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.6%
- 0–015.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–27.9%
Recent form
Leicesterfield
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lerumo Lions · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs NWU FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs University of Pretoria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Midlands Wanderers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gomora United FC · 4-2 (W)
Hope FC
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Orbit College · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cape Town City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NWU FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Highbury · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs University of Pretoria · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magesi | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Cape Town City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Casric Stars | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Hungry Lions | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Lerumo Lions | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Upington City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Hope FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Highbury | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Gomora United FC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | NWU FC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Leicesterfield | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Midlands Wanderers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | University of Pretoria | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Orbit College | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | The Bees | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Venda FC | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.