· Analysis updated 17:39 UTC
Leiknir R. vs Fylkir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Leiknir R. and 2.43 for Fylkir, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Fylkir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fylkir win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 2.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leiknir R. home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fylkir away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fylkir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 24% / 19% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Leiknir R. and 2.43 for Fylkir, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–17.1%
- 1–37.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
Leiknir R.
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IR Reykjavik · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Njardvik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ægir · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T19:15:00.000Z · A vs HK Kopavogur · 1-2 (L)
Fylkir
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Throttur Reykjavik · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:15:00.000Z · H vs HK Kopavogur · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs HK Kopavogur · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs HK Kopavogur · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Grotta · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 45 |
| 2 | Throttur Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 43 |
| 3 | Fylkir | 22 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 40 |
| 4 | HK Kopavogur | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Njardvik | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 6 | Leiknir R. | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 7 | IR Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Grotta | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -7 | 27 |
| 9 | Vestri | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 27 |
| 10 | Völsungur | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -12 | 26 |
| 11 | Grindavik | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Ægir | 22 | 2 | 3 | 17 | -44 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fylkir win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.