· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Leiknir R. vs Ægir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Leiknir R. and 1.53 for Ægir, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Leiknir R. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leiknir R. win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leiknir R. home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ægir away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leiknir R. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Leiknir R. and 1.53 for Ægir, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–25.8%
Recent form
Leiknir R.
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IR Reykjavik · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Njardvik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ægir · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T19:15:00.000Z · A vs HK Kopavogur · 1-2 (L)
Ægir
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Völsungur · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-06T19:15:00.000Z · A vs IR Reykjavik · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Njardvik · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grotta · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-07-10T19:15:00.000Z · H vs HK Kopavogur · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 6-1 Ægir (1. Deild)
- 2026-06-05T19:15:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 3-0 Ægir (1. Deild)
- 2023-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 5-0 Ægir (1. Deild)
- 2023-07-12T19:15:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 3-2 Ægir (1. Deild)
1. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 45 |
| 2 | Throttur Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 43 |
| 3 | Fylkir | 22 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 40 |
| 4 | HK Kopavogur | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Njardvik | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 6 | Leiknir R. | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 7 | IR Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Grotta | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -7 | 27 |
| 9 | Vestri | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 27 |
| 10 | Völsungur | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -12 | 26 |
| 11 | Grindavik | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Ægir | 22 | 2 | 3 | 17 | -44 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leiknir R. win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.