· Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Leiknir R. vs Grotta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Leiknir R. and 1.45 for Grotta, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Leiknir R. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leiknir R. win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leiknir R. home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leiknir R. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Leiknir R. and 1.45 for Grotta, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–27.1%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Leiknir R.
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IR Reykjavik · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Njardvik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ægir · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T19:15:00.000Z · A vs HK Kopavogur · 1-2 (L)
Grotta
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-10T19:15:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 0-1 Grotta (1. Deild)
- 2026-05-01T19:15:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 2-1 Grotta (1. Deild)
- 2024-07-30T19:15:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 3-1 Grotta (1. Deild)
- 2024-05-25T14:00:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 3-4 Grotta (1. Deild)
- 2023-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 2-1 Grotta (1. Deild)
- 2023-06-02T19:15:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 1-5 Grotta (1. Deild)
- 2019-07-30T19:15:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 2-2 Grotta (1. Deild)
- 2019-05-24T19:15:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 3-2 Grotta (1. Deild)
- 2017-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 2-1 Grotta (1. Deild)
- 2017-07-11T19:15:00.000Z · Leiknir R. 3-1 Grotta (1. Deild)
1. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 45 |
| 2 | Throttur Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 43 |
| 3 | Fylkir | 22 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 40 |
| 4 | HK Kopavogur | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Njardvik | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 6 | Leiknir R. | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 7 | IR Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Grotta | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -7 | 27 |
| 9 | Vestri | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 27 |
| 10 | Völsungur | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -12 | 26 |
| 11 | Grindavik | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Ægir | 22 | 2 | 3 | 17 | -44 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leiknir R. win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.