Leioa vs Eibar III Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.62 expected goals for Leioa and 1.13 for Eibar III, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Leioa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Leioa win

69.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.62 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Leioa home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eibar III away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leioa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 17% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.62 goals for Leioa and 1.13 for Eibar III, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Leioa win69%

Draw17%

Eibar III win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.1%
2–08.1%
3–18.0%
3–07.0%
1–17.0%

Recent form

Leioa

2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Amurrio Club · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar III · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs R. Union B · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pasaia KE · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bergantiños · 0-5 (L)

Eibar III

2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés III · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Santurtzi · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pasaia KE · 3-0 (W)
2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lagun Onak · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Deusto · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-03-07T16:00:00.000Z · Leioa 1-1 Eibar III (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2025-10-26T11:00:00.000Z · Leioa 1-0 Eibar III (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2025-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Leioa 5-2 Eibar III (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2025-01-12T11:00:00.000Z · Leioa 3-0 Eibar III (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Leioa	6	3	3	0	10	12
3	Derio	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Real Sociedad III	6	3	2	1	3	11
5	Aretxabaleta	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	3	1	2	-1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Touring	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Sodupe	6	2	2	2	-4	8
11	Durango	6	1	4	1	0	7
12	Beasain	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Erandio	6	2	0	4	-2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	2	0	4	-4	6
16	Eibar III	6	1	2	3	-1	5
17	R. Union B	6	1	2	3	-5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Leioa win, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.