· Analysis updated 12:35 UTC
Leioa vs Pasaia KE Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.11 expected goals for Leioa and 1.00 for Pasaia KE, a combined total of 4.11. That distribution gives Leioa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leioa win
78.8% probability
Expected goals
3.11 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leioa home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pasaia KE away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–08.0%
- 2–17.9%
- 4–06.4%
Recent form
Leioa
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sodupe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés III · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aurrerá Vitoria · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Amurrio Club · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar III · 2-1 (W)
Pasaia KE
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aretxabaleta · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Santurtzi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs San Ignacio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad III · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Leioa · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · Leioa 1-1 Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2026-01-17T15:30:00.000Z · Leioa 3-1 Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2025-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · Leioa 0-1 Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2025-03-01T15:30:00.000Z · Leioa 1-1 Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2024-10-19T15:30:00.000Z · Leioa 5-2 Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2024-02-10T11:00:00.000Z · Leioa 2-1 Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2023-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · Leioa 3-1 Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2023-04-22T16:00:00.000Z · Leioa 2-3 Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2023-01-08T16:00:00.000Z · Leioa 7-0 Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2022-03-19T16:30:00.000Z · Leioa 0-0 Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leioa | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Derio | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | San Ignacio | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | Touring | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Aretxabaleta | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Durango | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés III | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad III | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Eibar III | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Beasain | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | Sodupe | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Pasaia KE | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Santurtzi | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Lagun Onak | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Erandio | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | R. Union B | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leioa win, at 78.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.