Leiston vs Alvechurch Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Leiston and 1.75 for Alvechurch, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Alvechurch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Alvechurch win

49.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Leiston home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alvechurch away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alvechurch to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Leiston and 1.75 for Alvechurch, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Leiston win27%

Draw24%

Alvechurch win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.9%
1–29.5%
0–18.7%
0–27.6%
2–16.8%

Recent form

Leiston

2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Kettering Town · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Warwick · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Coventry United · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Real Bedford · 2-3 (L)

Alvechurch

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stratford Town · 4-4 (D)
2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Spalding United · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spalding United · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Halesowen Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Premier - Southern Central table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Bedford	13	10	2	1	21	32
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	4	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	8	3	1	10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	9	0	5	9	27
5	Needham Market	13	7	2	4	9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	6	4	2	13	22
8	Alvechurch	12	6	4	2	12	22
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	4	5	4	3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	5	2	4	-3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	-2	16
13	Redditch United	11	3	5	3	1	14
14	Hitchin Town	14	3	4	7	-4	13
15	Bishop's Stortford	13	4	1	8	-6	13
16	Banbury United	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Leiston	11	3	3	5	-4	12
18	Stratford Town	13	2	6	5	-8	12
19	Leamington	13	2	4	7	-6	10
20	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	-8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	1	2	9	-13	5
22	Stamford	13	0	1	12	-32	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Alvechurch win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.