England · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Regular Season - 514:00
LeistonLWD

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 29 August 2026

· Analysis updated 22:45 UTC

Leiston vs Redditch United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Leiston and 0.97 for Redditch United, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Leiston the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Leiston or Draw

72.2% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.29 – 0.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Leiston win44%
Draw28%
Redditch United win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Both teams to score45%

Correct score

  • 1–013.5%
  • 1–113.0%
  • 0–010.4%
  • 0–110.1%
  • 2–08.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Leiston to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.29 goals for Leiston and 0.97 for Redditch United, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

  • Model confidence

    Leiston or Draw is the headline pick at 72% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Leiston

    Redditch United

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Non League Premier - Southern Central table

      Full league page →

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.