· Referee L. Filipe · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
Leixoes vs Amarante Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Leixoes and 1.08 for Amarante, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Leixoes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leixoes home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Amarante away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leixoes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 29% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Leixoes and 1.08 for Amarante, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–111.6%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Leixoes
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cinfães · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Torreense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs União de Leiria · 2-4 (L)
Amarante
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ponte da Barca · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs União de Leiria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica B · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vizela · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.