· Analysis updated 22:36 UTC
Leixoes vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Leixoes and 1.50 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Leixoes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leixoes win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leixoes home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casa Pia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leixoes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Leixoes and 1.50 for Casa Pia, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–26.2%
Recent form
Leixoes
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cinfães · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Torreense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs União de Leiria · 2-4 (L)
Casa Pia
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-24T19:15:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leixoes win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.