Estadio do Mar · Referee Jose Bessa · Analysis updated 13:15 UTC
Leixoes vs FC Porto B Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Leixoes and 0.86 for FC Porto B, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Leixoes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leixoes win
58.2% probability
Expected goals
1.74 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leixoes home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Porto B away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 2–011.2%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.85 | 50.0% | 52.4% | 1.91 | +2.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.30 | 40.9% | 41.8% | 2.39 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 17.9% | 18.3% | 5.46 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 23.6% | 23.5% | 4.26 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 81.9% | 81.7% | 1.22 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.53 | 58.5% | 58.2% | 1.72 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.2% | 76.5% | 1.31 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 47.6% | 2.10 | -2.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Leixoes
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto B · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cinfães · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Torreense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 2-0 (W)
FC Porto B
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vizela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tondela · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Penafiel · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-24T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Feirense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Farense · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-20T17:45:00.000Z · Leixoes 3-0 FC Porto B (Segunda Liga)
- 2025-12-06T18:00:00.000Z · Leixoes 2-4 FC Porto B (Segunda Liga)
- 2025-03-16T15:30:00.000Z · Leixoes 1-0 FC Porto B (Segunda Liga)
- 2024-10-27T15:30:00.000Z · Leixoes 3-0 FC Porto B (Segunda Liga)
- 2024-02-24T15:30:00.000Z · Leixoes 2-0 FC Porto B (Segunda Liga)
- 2023-10-01T13:00:00.000Z · Leixoes 1-3 FC Porto B (Segunda Liga)
- 2023-03-19T15:30:00.000Z · Leixoes 0-4 FC Porto B (Segunda Liga)
- 2022-10-08T10:00:00.000Z · Leixoes 0-0 FC Porto B (Segunda Liga)
- 2022-04-16T13:00:00.000Z · Leixoes 0-0 FC Porto B (Segunda Liga)
- 2021-12-04T15:30:00.000Z · Leixoes 0-1 FC Porto B (Segunda Liga)
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leixoes win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.