Estádio do Mar · Referee Luís Godinho, Portugal · Analysis updated 13:16 UTC
Leixoes vs Tondela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Leixoes and 1.05 for Tondela, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Leixoes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leixoes home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tondela away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.7%
- 0–111.4%
- 0–010.9%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Leixoes
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto B · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cinfães · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Torreense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 2-0 (W)
Tondela
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Imortal Albufeira · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto B · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs União de Leiria · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · Leixoes 1-0 Tondela (Segunda Liga)
- 2025-03-10T18:00:00.000Z · Leixoes 0-1 Tondela (Segunda Liga)
- 2024-10-12T10:00:00.000Z · Leixoes 1-2 Tondela (Segunda Liga)
- 2024-03-03T15:30:00.000Z · Leixoes 1-1 Tondela (Segunda Liga)
- 2023-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · Leixoes 2-4 Tondela (Segunda Liga)
- 2023-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · Leixoes 3-2 Tondela (Segunda Liga)
- 2022-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · Leixoes 1-1 Tondela (Segunda Liga)
- 2021-11-22T19:45:00.000Z · Leixoes 1-3 Tondela (Taça de Portugal)
- 2018-12-18T20:00:00.000Z · Leixoes 4-4 Tondela (Taça de Portugal)
- 2017-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · Leixoes 3-2 Tondela (Taça de Portugal)
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.