ŠRC Polena · Analysis updated 08:46 UTC
Lenart vs Marjeta na Dravskem polj Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Lenart and 1.44 for Marjeta na Dravskem polj, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Lenart the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marjeta na Dravskem polj away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lenart to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Lenart and 1.44 for Marjeta na Dravskem polj, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Lenart
- 2024-08-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Peca · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-08-22T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Marjeta na Dravskem polj · 2-3 (L)
Marjeta na Dravskem polj
- 2024-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maribor · 0-4 (L)
- 2024-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Peca · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-08-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Malečnik · 3-1 (W)
- 2023-10-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Roho · 2-3 (L)
- 2023-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Limbuš Pekre · 5-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bravo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Fužinar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Dob | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Tolmin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Brežice | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Rače | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Celje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bistrica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Odranci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Šencur | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Radomlje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Svoboda | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Tabor Sežana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Nafta | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Triglav | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Bilje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Krško | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Marjeta na Dravskem polj | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Koper | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Litija | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Podvinci | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Aluminij | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | NK Ormoz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Korotan Prevalje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Videm | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Turnišče | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 29 | Grad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Čarda Martjanci | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Tromejnik Montpreis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Velesovo Cerklje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.